In Jared Diamond's book "Collapse, How Societies Choose to Fail Or Succeed," he lists four reasons "why Ö some societies make disastrous decisions!" "First, a group may fail to anticipate a problem before the problem actually arrives
. . . because the experience happened so long ago as to have been forgotten." In the mid to late 1970s the United States suffered several oil shocks that severely challenged the economy yet we seem to have forgotten.
"Second, when the problem does arrive, the group may fail to perceive it." Because it "Ö.takes the form of a slow trend concealed by wide up and down fluctuations." A little over a year ago oil was around $50 per barrel and they said it was heading lower. Today it is over $105 per barrel.
In the last five years oil has doubled in price --TWICE!
Third, "after they perceive it, they may fail Öto try to solve it with 'rational behavior', arising from clashes of interest between people Ö. some people may reason correctly that they can advance their own interests by behavior harmful to other people." Even with $100 plus oil some people in the industry and in government are still saying this is not a problem!
Fourth, it is "ÖdifficultÖ. to abandon some of one's core values when
they seem to be incompatible with survival." Have we become so addicted to cheap energy that we cannot see the writing on the wall? The era of cheap energy is over and if we don't "make other arrangements" we are doomed!