When Bob Dylan first broke away Two friends…Both registered Utah Republicans…Both elected to office…Live within two miles of each other in northern Utah…Both are accomplished, successful business owners…Both have held high office in the LDS Church…Both are committed or leaning to vote for Mitt Romney as the next U.S. President.
But there’s one difference: One believes that President Obama will win re-election; the other doesn’t.
“Listen, it’s hard to defeat an incumbent president,” says my one friend. “The President has a lot of built-in advantages. Human nature causes people to support the known over the unknown, and polls show American genuinely like President Obama even though they are unsure about some of his policies.
“The Republicans are beating themselves up in the process of nominating a candidate. Romney will probably be the GOP candidate, but not before his fellow Republicans lambast him for being an unfeeling vulture capitalist who destroys lives and companies for profit, and for being an unprincipled flip-flopper who changes positions just to get elected.
“Obama may convince people that he faced a horrible economy and that the Republicans have obstructed him in trying to fix things. Obama also holds the cards when it comes to the issue of taxing the wealthy. In a recent Pew Research poll, only 11 percent complained that they paid too much in federal taxes; their major complaint (58 percent) was that the wealthy don’t pay their fair share. The economy is improving, so I think President Obama will be awfully tough to beat in November.”
My other friend disagrees.
“The election won’t be about whom the Republicans choose unless they select a wingnut like Ron Paul,” he says. “The election will center on the economy and the fear that President Obama and the Democrats want to increase the role of the government.
“Americans don’t understand the specifics, but a large majority are opposed to Obama’s health care legislation. They also fear higher taxes. They will enter the voting booth and muter that Obama faced a problem but was unable to fix it.
“In addition, all surveys show that Republicans are more energized about voting in November than are the Democrats. Obama won four years ago by carrying most of the swing states. So far, he is trailing when voters are polled in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, and Ohio. While the Democrats hold a sizeable lead attracting Latino voters, the selection of a Latino vice presidential candidate like Florida’s Marco Rubio would siphon off many of those votes.
“I think Obama fatigue will lead the Republicans – almost any Republican, but especially Mitt Romney – to capture the White House.”
Two friends, and one fact: One of them will be correct come this November.